Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has warned that Kenya could face a major rice shortage and rising food prices if a court upholds orders blocking the importation of 500,000 metric tonnes of duty-free rice.

The Kerugoya court is expected to give directions tomorrow, August 15, at 2:30 pm, on whether to lift conservatory orders obtained by a farmers’ party challenging the Cabinet’s decision to allow the imports.

In an affidavit, Kagwe noted that local rice production meets only 20% of the country’s annual demand, leaving a deficit of about 1 million metric tonnes that is largely met through imports.

Kenya’s annual requirement stands at approximately 1.3 million metric tonnes, with consumption projected to reach 1.5 million metric tonnes this year, about 125,000 metric tonnes per month, driven by a per capita demand of 29 kilograms and a population of 54.79 million.

Between July and December 2025 alone, the country will require about 625,000 metric tonnes.

“The current retail price of Grade 1 milled white rice has already risen to between Sh190 and Sh220 per kilogram, up from last year’s duty-free period average of Sh150 per kilogram,” Kagwe stated.

“If duty-free imports are blocked, prices are likely to surge further, worsening the cost-of-living crisis.”

The CS said the Kenya National Trading Corporation has signed contracts with the Mwea Rice Growers Cooperative to purchase local stocks for government institutions, but current supplies from farmers stand at only 20,000 bags of 50 kilograms each, far below the projected demand of over 350,000 bags needed by public agencies.

According to his affidavit, the Ministry of Education needs 130,000 bags of Komboka rice, the State Department for Special Programmes requires 90,000 bags of Komboka, the State Department for Correctional Services has requested 60,000 bags of Sindano, and the Kenya Defence Forces needs 40,000 bags of SPR.

Other agencies, including the Administration Police, General Service Unit, National Youth Service, and the Kenya Police Service, also require large volumes.

Kagwe said the decision to allow duty-free imports was aimed at stabilising supply and protecting consumers from sharp price increases.

“The importation is necessary to stabilise prices and avert a potential food crisis,” he emphasised.

The case has divided the agricultural sector, with some farmer groups arguing that duty-free imports could hurt local growers, while others insist imports are necessary to meet the large deficit and shield consumers from price shocks.

Kenya’s rice shortfall has persisted for years, with climate-related challenges reducing yields in key production areas such as the Mwea Irrigation Scheme.

The court’s ruling will determine whether the shipment proceeds or remains blocked, a decision likely to have an immediate impact on market prices in the coming weeks.