Kenya faces maize shortage, pushing flour prices to 13-month high

The price of maize flour has spiked in recent months, putting a strain on Kenyan consumers as domestic maize stocks dwindle and demand rises.

According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the price of a two-kilogramme packet reached Sh165.05 in March 2025, marking the highest cost in over a year.

This represents a 2.94% rise from February and a 14.11% increase from October 2024.

Flour millers point to the reduced local maize supply as a key driver behind the surge in prices.

With domestic stocks falling short, millers have turned to imports from Tanzania to meet growing demand.

"Farmers are holding minimal stock (of maize grain), while traders are speculating on price increases," explained Paloma Fernandes, the Chief Executive  Officer of the Cereal Millers Association (CMA), when she spoke to the Daily Nation.

Fernandes also noted that feed millers are competing for the same limited supply, as no waiver has been issued for imported feed maize.

The demand for maize has further exacerbated the situation, pushing the price of a 90-kilogramme bag up by as much as 26.47% since December 2024.

This price increase has placed further pressure on consumers, as millers are forced to pass on the additional costs.

“The rise in flour prices is proportional to the increase in the cost of maize grain, meaning millers are passing on the bulk of the additional cost to consumers,” said Fernandes.

This surge in maize prices comes on the heels of optimistic government statements regarding food security.

In November 2024, President William Ruto expressed confidence that the country was on track to achieve food security, with expectations of record maize production.

"Our efforts to secure food security and stability are already bearing fruit. Since February, we have distributed subsidised fertiliser to 6.45 million registered farmers in 45 counties, enabling them to increase their yields,” Ruto said during his State of the Nation Address.

Despite these measures, the current market trends suggest a reduced supply of maize compared to last year, raising concerns about the sustainability of food security in Kenya.

The expected increase in maize production to 74 million 90-kilogram bags, which would represent a 55.46% rise over the 47.6 million bags harvested in 2023, is still uncertain.

As of March 2025, Kenya’s overall inflation rate stood at 3.6%, with a slight increase from 3.5% in February.

This inflationary pressure continues to reflect the impact of rising commodity prices on the average Kenyan household.