Tensions over regional control and clan influence are emerging as key forces behind Isiolo Governor Abdi Guyo’s impeachment, as the Senate prepares to begin a critical two-day hearing into his removal from office.

Senate Speaker Amason Kingi has scheduled the session for Tuesday and Wednesday, with senators set to examine three main accusations against Guyo: gross violation of the Constitution and other laws, abuse of office, and gross misconduct. Interviews indicate sharp divisions within the Senate, placing Guyo’s fate in a precarious balance.

Guyo’s impeachment, passed by 16 out of 18 Isiolo MCAs, comes amid growing political friction in the Northern region.

The governor is seen by some leaders as a disruptive force to the existing political balance, particularly due to his recent alignment with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Although he was elected under the Jubilee Party banner in 2022, Guyo has since shifted allegiance, a move that has stirred dissatisfaction among regional heavyweights, especially within the United Democratic Movement (UDM).

“This is all about political supremacy. The governor moved to UDA and is now one of its main champions in the region — but some leaders aren’t happy about that,” an Isiolo MP who sought anonymity said.

UDM has established a strong presence in the North, holding governorships in Marsabit and Mandera, along with Senate seats in Mandera and Wajir, and several MP and MCA positions.

Guyo’s shift to UDA is viewed by insiders as a challenge to UDM’s influence, further intensifying political competition.

Beyond party lines, deep-seated clan dynamics are adding pressure. Guyo and Isiolo Senator Fatuma Dullo come from the same clan, and while Guyo is fighting to keep his seat, Dullo is reportedly preparing to contest the governorship in 2027.

This has raised fears of a looming intra-clan battle for dominance in Isiolo.

Guyo, who made history as the first MCA to rise to governor, has had a long career in Nairobi politics, serving as the Matopeni ward representative, minority leader, and later majority leader in the Nairobi County Assembly.

He was elected governor in August 2022, succeeding Mohammed Kuti, who stepped down due to health reasons and endorsed him.

Despite a court order halting the impeachment process until a case filed by Guyo is heard, the Isiolo County Assembly moved forward with the motion.

His legal team is expected to raise this defiance as a preliminary objection when the Senate sits.

On Tuesday, the Senate Clerk will read the charges against Guyo, after which he will be required to respond.

Both parties will then present any preliminary objections. Once resolved, the hearing will proceed with opening statements, followed by the County Assembly's three-hour presentation and cross-examination.

Senators will then question the MCAs before Guyo presents his defence, including rebuttals and a round of questions from the lawmakers.

After the hearing ends, the Senate will debate the motion. For the impeachment to succeed, 24 out of the 47 elected senators, sitting as county delegations, must vote in support.

Since assuming office, Guyo has promised a development-focused administration committed to unity and collaboration with the national government.

His administration highlights various accomplishments, including the drilling of 68 boreholes, the construction of over 50 Early Childhood Development classrooms, and the issuance of more than 2,000 title deeds to residents.

Yet, his future now depends on how the political, legal and clan factors unfold in the coming Senate session , a battle that extends far beyond just the impeachment motion.