A new survey has raised alarm over the chances of elected leaders retaining their seats in the 2027 general election, showing that nearly 90 per cent of incumbents are at risk of being voted out.

The report by Transparency International, Kenya reveals that none of the current officeholders has more than a 10 per cent chance of re-election.

The survey, which focused on county-level leaders , governors, senators, MPs, woman representatives, and MCAs, excluded the presidency. According to the findings, the positions of woman representative and senator stand out as the least likely to be retained by current occupants.

“Overall, no elected official was reported to have more than a 10 per cent chance of re-election,” the report states.

The chances of woman representatives returning to office are especially low. Out of the 47 currently serving, only 2.6 per cent are considered “very likely” to be re-elected, with another 9.7 per cent described as “likely” to secure another term. Senators are also facing similar struggles, with just 4.2 per cent rated as “very likely” to win again, and 20.6 per cent seen as “likely” to keep their positions.

“The position of the woman representative and that of the senator showed the least likelihood of re-election,” the report adds.

Members of Parliament and governors have relatively higher chances compared to other leaders, though their outlook remains bleak.

The report notes that 8.9 per cent of MPs are “very likely” to retain their seats, and 28.3 per cent are “likely” to return. For governors, 6.3 per cent are “very likely” to be re-elected, while 21.8 per cent are considered “likely.”

Members of County Assembly also face uncertain futures, with just 6.1 per cent being “very likely” and 22.4 per cent “likely” to retain their seats.

The survey attributes MPs’ comparatively better re-election prospects to their active engagement with constituents through the National Government Constituency Development Fund (NG-CDF).

“The MP position came closest with a likelihood of 8.9 per cent, probably on account of the visibility created by their role in managing the NG-CDF,” the report says.

In contrast, senators do not manage any development fund, although a proposed Senate Oversight Fund is before Parliament. Woman representatives administer the National Government Affirmative Action Fund, but this has not significantly improved their public perception.

Despite having access to public funds, both senators and woman representatives ranked lowest in terms of public approval. “The offices of the senator and the woman rep were rated lowest, receiving a score of two out of five each,” the report says.

Governors, MPs and MCAs scored slightly higher with three out of five—labelled as “average” performance. “A score of three could denote an acceptable performance level, slightly above the midpoint of 2.5. Notably, none of the offices scored four, which would indicate good or very good performance,” the report explains.

The report also points to declining public perception of senators, whose average performance rating dropped from three in 2016 and 2019 to two in 2025.

Additionally, public awareness about the roles of senators and woman representatives remains low, with only 41.3 per cent and 54.1 per cent of respondents, respectively, understanding their responsibilities. “Given this limited knowledge, it is expected that the residents would have less interaction with the offices and subsequently lower levels of civic demand for accountability,” the report says.

The office of the woman representative had the least public engagement, with only four per cent of respondents reporting contact. Senators followed with 5.4 per cent. MCAs had the highest engagement at 24.9 per cent, while governors stood at 18.7 per cent.

Interestingly, the survey also found that voters are still open to electing women to key positions.

In 2025, 47 per cent of those polled said they were either “likely” or “very likely” to vote for a female governor, while 45 per cent expressed the same for female senators.

The MCA position had the highest level of support, with 51 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for a woman.

However, this represents a decline from 2019, when 65 per cent of respondents supported a female governor and 68 per cent backed a female MCA.

“Despite the intent to vote for female candidates, it must be noted that the actual election results reflect a different reality,” the report cautions. In the 2022 general election, only seven women were elected as governors—just 14 per cent of the total. In the Senate, only three women made it to office, representing 6.3 per cent.

The survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,029 Kenyan adults across 15 counties selected using simple random sampling.

In a related 2024 parliamentary scorecard released by Mzalendo Trust, several lawmakers stood out for their participation in debates.

In the Senate, Samson Cherargei (Nandi), Eddy Oketch (Migori), Tabitha Mutinda (nominated - UDA), Okong’o Omogeni (ODM), and Gloria Orwoba (nominated - UDA, now ousted) were the most active, with 209, 159, 142, 137, and 136 contributions respectively.

Among MPs, Wilberforce Oundo (Funyula) led with 103 speeches, followed by Beatrice Elachi (Dagoretti North) with 98, James Nyikal (Seme) with 94, Makali Mulu (Kitui Central, Wiper) with 80, and Adan Keynan (Eldas, Jubilee) with 47.