Nigeria’s political scene has witnessed a major shift after two of the country’s top opposition leaders, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in a bid to challenge President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 elections.

The move marks one of the most dramatic realignments in Nigerian politics since the return to civilian rule in 1999.

Atiku, formerly of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Obi, who contested the 2023 election under the Labour Party (LP), have now thrown their weight behind the ADC, alongside other prominent politicians from Tinubu’s APC.

Why have they joined forces?

The alliance follows months of consultations between the two leaders, aimed at forming a single front to prevent a repeat of the 2023 outcome, where Tinubu emerged president with only 37% of the vote. Atiku and Obi, who got 29% and 25% respectively, had split the opposition base.

At the official unveiling with the ADC, interim chairman David Mark described the coalition as a step to “save the country’s democracy” and guard against the emergence of a one-party system.

The PDP and LP have both been plagued by internal divisions, which many believe were stirred by external interference.

Analyst Shehu Iliyasu said, “Both Atiku [Abubakar] and Obi felt they came so close in 2023 and would have maybe won on a joint ticket so they want to amend their mistake by working together this time around.”

Who else is in the ADC?

The coalition is anchored by Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, Tinubu’s two main challengers in the previous election.

While official nominations are still a long way off, many political analysts predict a possible Atiku–Obi ticket, with the former vice-president as the presidential candidate and Obi as his running mate.

Other prominent figures who have joined the ADC include former Senate President David Mark, former PDP chairman Uche Secondus, ex-Tinubu ally Nasir El-Rufai, and former minister Rotimi Amaechi.

Is the ADC a new party?

The ADC is not new. It was formed in 2005 as the Alliance for Democratic Change and later renamed.

Though smaller than the dominant parties, it has a national presence, two seats in the House of Representatives, and an active political structure in all states.

Dumebi Kachikwu, who came fifth in the last presidential race, was the party’s flagbearer.

The coalition had initially considered registering a new party called the All Democratic Alliance (ADA), but according to ADC’s Jamilu Danladi, the tight timeline made that unrealistic, prompting them to settle for the existing ADC platform.

Registering a new party in Nigeria is a lengthy process that requires nationwide presence and a headquarters in Abuja, among other conditions.

Can Obi and Abubakar work together again?

Many observers are questioning whether the two can maintain unity, given past tensions. Obi left the PDP for the LP in 2022 after Atiku was selected as the PDP’s flagbearer. His grassroots support base has been vocal about not wanting him to play second fiddle.

Atiku’s supporters argue that with his seniority and status as a former vice-president, he should naturally lead any joint ticket.

The two had previously run together in 2019 under the PDP but lost to Muhammadu Buhari. Their 2023 campaigns, despite being in rival parties, were free of personal attacks, and both avoided speaking ill of each other.

What are their chances in 2027?

Analyst Ben Kenneth believes their chances have improved. “If you look at what Atiku and Obi got in the last election, it's clear to see that they would've won assuming they worked together, so it’s a good thing they have realised they need each other,” he said.

However, another analyst, Sani Hamisu, thinks Tinubu is now better placed. “In Nigeria and Africa, when a leader is in office seeking a second term, he hardly loses, it is very rare and that's why I feel Tinubu has a better chance now than when he wasn't in office in 2019.”

Is Tinubu going to run again?

The APC has already endorsed Tinubu to seek re-election. His first term ends on 29 May 2027. Questions remain over his health, as he will be 75 by the next election and 79 if he completes a second term.

While some media reports have suggested his recent foreign trips were for medical treatment, the presidency has denied this, saying he is in good health.

The APC has downplayed the formation of the ADC coalition. Acting chairman Ali Bukar Dalori told BBC Hausa that the alliance would not affect the ruling party. “Nobody is talking about a coalition except in Abuja. Even in Abuja, they are in a hotel, and when they are defeated in elections, they will leave the country,” he said.

What does this mean for the PDP and Labour Party?

The PDP has ruled out joining the ADC and insists on contesting the election alone. The LP has also called on its members to remain loyal to the party.

Obi’s exit is a serious setback for the Labour Party, which gained massive popularity in 2023 largely because of his candidacy.

The PDP, meanwhile, has lost several high-profile members and may soon lose its position as the main opposition party.

Analyst Iliyasu Hadi said, “When you look at the calibre of politicians in the ADC and those remaining in the PDP, it's clear to see that the ADC will soon become Nigeria's main opposition party, [it's] just a matter of time.”

Despite retaining control of 11 states, both parties risk losing more ground if governors and other members defect to either the APC or the ADC.