Prices of essential goods expected to rise in April- CBK report

A new report released by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) paints a mixed picture for the retail and wholesale sectors in the coming weeks.

The Agriculture Sector Survey, conducted between March 10 and 14, 2025, aims to provide insight into recent market trends and expectations regarding the pricing and production of major agricultural goods—information that supports the CBK’s monetary policy decisions.

According to the report, Kenyans should brace for increased costs on certain essential items.

The Balance of Opinion (BOO) on projected price shifts suggests that the cost of several staple foods—particularly cereals and specific vegetables—is likely to rise in April 2025.

The survey, which was published online on Thursday, April 17, indicates that prices for maize and related products are expected to climb this month compared to March, largely due to typical seasonal trends.

The survey also noted that prices of sugar, cooking fat, and salad oil are anticipated to rise, influenced by recent global market trends where the cost of these commodities has been on the upswing.

According to the majority of respondents, sugar prices could surge by approximately 27 percent, while salad oil might see an even sharper increase of around 32 percent during the same period.

Additionally, the CBK report highlighted that tomato prices are likely to spike, driven by an anticipated drop in supply due to the onset of the long rains expected in the coming weeks.

Other basic food items such as brown rice, bread, and tomatoes are also projected to become more expensive in April.

However, the CBK survey also brought some relief, indicating that the prices of fast-growing vegetables, especially kales (sukuma wiki), traditional greens, cabbages, and spinach, are expected to drop in April 2025.

This anticipated decline is attributed to the upcoming rains, which are likely to boost supply in the coming weeks.

The projected price changes are expected to impact various regions across the country, as the CBK survey gathered insights from 312 participants, including wholesalers, retailers, and farmers in selected towns.

These included areas within the Nairobi Metropolitan region and nearby counties such as Kiambu, Kajiado, and Machakos, as well as Naivasha, Gilgil, Nakuru, Narok, Bomet, Kericho, and Kisumu.

Others are Mombasa, Kisii, Eldoret, Kitale, Nyandarua, Nyahururu, Mwea, Isebania, Meru, Nyeri, Isiolo, Oloitoktok, Namanga, Makueni, Molo, Kakamega, and Bungoma.

Although prices are expected to stabilize after the initial surge, a significant number of farmers voiced concerns about the growing influence of middlemen and brokers in the supply chain.

According to the survey, 75% of retailers and wholesalers pointed to middlemen as a primary driver of rising prices, an increase from 71% reported in January 2025.