Only 20 percent of Kenyans confident in 2027 polls – TIFA

Only 20% of Kenyans believe the 2027 General Election will be free and fair, a new TIFA survey shows, pointing to deepening public mistrust in the electoral process and growing dissatisfaction with the country’s leadership.

The poll, carried out between May 11 and May 15 across nine regions, involved 1,530 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5%.

The findings reveal a sharp drop in confidence as the country heads into the next election cycle.

TIFA found that belief in a credible election is closely tied to political alignment.

Among those who support the Broad-Based Government alliance between William Ruto and Raila Odinga, 38% expressed confidence in the 2027 polls.

In contrast, only 13% of those who oppose the alliance believe the election will be fair.

Half of all those interviewed said they have no confidence at all in the credibility of the next election.

The survey also shows that 54% of Kenyans are against the Broad-Based Government. Just 22% support it, while 25% said they are neutral.

Opposition to the alliance is highest in Mt Kenya and Lower Eastern regions, while support is strongest in Central Rift and Nyanza.

According to TIFA, dissatisfaction with the economy is a key reason behind the growing resistance to the political deal. Three-quarters of respondents said their financial situation has worsened since the 2022 election.

Public mood about the direction of the country has also dropped sharply.

Only 14 per cent of Kenyans believe the country is on the right path, down from 49% in September 2023.

A wide majority, 75%, say the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The rising cost of living was the main reason for the negative outlook, mentioned by 45 per cent of respondents. Other top concerns include unemployment, corruption, and poor governance.