Census dispute throws revenue-sharing talks into uncertainty
“However, the population for Wajir county, Mandera county and Garissa county must be adjusted in accordance with the judgment in constitutional petition No 4 of 2020.”
Plans to roll out a new revenue-sharing formula among Kenya’s 47 counties may stall after a Senate committee rejected key population data for Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa counties.
The Senate Finance and Budget Committee has cast doubt on the accuracy of both the 2009 and 2019 census figures following a High Court ruling that annulled the 2019 results for the three counties.
The rejected data forms a central part of the new funding model, with population accounting for 45 percent of the weight in the formula. Both the Senate committee and the Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA) had used this percentage in their proposals.
"The population parameter, weighted at 42 per cent on the fourth basis, is based on data from the 2019 KPHC," the committee stated in a report tabled in the Senate.
"However, the population for Wajir county, Mandera county, and Garissa county must be adjusted in accordance with the judgment in constitutional petition No. 4 of 2020."
In January, the High Court in Garissa ruled that the 2019 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics census results for the three counties were invalid due to what Justice John Onyiengo termed as "significant irregularities."
The judge ordered all government agencies, including the electoral commission, not to use the disputed figures for official decisions.
"That a structural interdict order be and I hereby issue, directing the KNBS to conduct a fresh mini-population census in respect to Mandera North, Mandera West, Banisa and Lafey," the court ruling said.
The judge also ordered the repeat census to cover Mandera East, Eldas, Tarbaj, Wajir West, Wajir East, Wajir North, Balambala, Lagdera, Dadaab, and Garissa Township. The exercise must be completed within a year from the date of the ruling.
A change in population figures is expected to affect the new formula.
The Senate committee warned that using old data from 2009 could lead to unfair sharing of funds.
"The committee is concerned that using 2009 population data for the affected counties may result in inequitable resource allocation and undermine the legitimacy of the revenue-sharing process," the report noted.
Despite rejecting the data, the committee did not explain how the populations should be adjusted.
It instead proposed raising the basic (equal) share from 22 to 35%, and giving geographical size an 8 percent weight, slightly lower than CRA’s proposal of 9%.