IGAD forecasts heavy rains in Kenya, Eastern Africa from June to September

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has issued a warning of expected heavy rainfall across Kenya and several East African regions between June and September 2025.

Meteorologists anticipate a likelihood of above-average precipitation during this period.

In a seasonal outlook shared at the 70th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 70), experts projected a 55% chance of higher-than-normal rainfall in areas including central Sudan, eastern South Sudan, parts of Ethiopia’s north and southwest, western Kenya, and eastern Uganda.

Meanwhile, above-normal rainfall is also anticipated in parts of Uganda, South Sudan, southern Sudan, Djibouti, and western Eritrea.

According to the report, this season accounts for over 50% of the annual rainfall in northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa and over 80% in much of Sudan.

As such, the forecast is crucial for early planning and preparedness in key sectors like agriculture, food security, water management, disaster risk reduction, and other climate-sensitive areas.

Additionally, there is a strong likelihood of below-average rainfall in coastal regions of Somalia and Kenya, as well as in northwestern South Sudan and southeastern Ethiopia.

While most areas in East Africa are expected to experience the rains around the typical onset time, some regions may receive early showers, whereas western Ethiopia could face a delayed start to the rainy season.

"The temperature forecast shows a likelihood of warmer-than-average conditions over much of the region, with higher probabilities over southern Ethiopia and Somalia, eastern Kenya, and northern Sudan. Conversely, average to below-average temperatures are expected over the IGAD-Karamoja cluster, Djibouti, Eritrea, central Sudan, and northeastern Ethiopia," read the report.

"The Greater Horn of Africa is facing unprecedented climate extremes—from droughts and floods to erratic rainfall—which threaten food systems, water supplies, and livelihoods," said Mohamed Ware, IGAD’s Deputy Executive Secretary.

"We must embed climate services into our institutions and collaborate across borders and sectors to integrate climate risks into every decision. The region’s future depends on it."

While increased rainfall may benefit agriculture and improve water availability, IGAD has cautioned about the heightened risk of flooding and waterborne diseases.

In response, ICPAC has called on both regional and national authorities to take early action and implement preparedness measures across East Africa.

This weather outlook follows the release of the State of Climate Africa 2024 report by the World Meteorological Organization, which detailed recent El Niño patterns affecting Kenya and East Africa.

According to the report, the region experienced severe flooding between March and May due to unusually heavy and prolonged rains.

The deluge caused widespread destruction across Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, and neighboring countries.