The upcoming by-elections will be a key turning point in Kenya’s political direction, with youth and independent candidates poised to shake up traditional power structures, according to Siasa Place Executive Director Nerima Wako-Ojiwa.

Speaking during an interview with Radio Generation on Wednesday, Wako said that the country is on the verge of a grassroots political transformation that will catch established parties off guard. She said by-elections will serve as a testing ground for what lies ahead in 2027 and beyond.

“I think watching the by-elections when they occur is going to be a huge determinant of how 2027 or future elections are going to happen,” Wako said.

“These traditional parties are going to be surprised at how quickly they have lost their influence at the grassroots. It’s going to be determined by elections,” he added.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC)  over the weekend revealed that their immediate priority is organizing 23 by-elections across the country, which include six constituencies, one Senate seat, and 16 Member of County Assembly (MCA) positions.

“ We have formally  requested both the Senate and the National Assembly to issue fresh notifications to facilitate elections in the six constituencies, one Senate seat, and 16 county assembly wards,” IEBC Chairperson Erastus Ethekon said.

The chairman attributed the delay in holding the by-elections to the absence of commissioners, a situation that has since been resolved. He assured the public that the commission is now moving swiftly to meet its obligations.

“We will act with speed to ensure that lapsed gazette notices are reissued so that we can announce the by-election dates,” he said.

Ethekon indicated that by August, Kenyans can expect a clear timeline for the upcoming by-elections.

Wako noted that while many focus on the presidential race, the real power shift is already brewing at the local level, among parliamentary and county assembly seats—where youth are increasingly rejecting old systems of political endorsement.

“You are talking about up top, presidency level executive leadership, but where Parliament sits is where it’s paralyzed, because they are the voice of the people.Representatives, MCAs, the same, that’s going to be controlled by agency,” she explained.

The Siasa Place Executive Director  recalled how traditional politics has often been controlled by personalities and community endorsements, where voters are told whom to support without knowing the candidates or their records. But that pattern is beginning to break.

“Our politics has been driven by ‘Raila akikuja aseme huyu ndiye, tupigie kura,’ and people go with it.They don’t even care who that person is. They don’t know their background. Sometimes even a council of elders decides for a whole community who to vote for. That is where the switch is going to happen in the next election. People are going to be like, ‘usi tuambie sisi tumeshachagua.’ That is powerful,” Wako noted.

According to Wako, a new crop of independent candidates is emerging from youth movements, many of whom are choosing not to align with major parties due to the limitations and gatekeeping within those structures.

“No, they are not,” when asked whether young people would find space within traditional political parties.That’s why, even with the by-elections that are happening, I’m seeing a lot of youth coming out and saying they are going to stand independent or in smaller parties, which is fascinating to me,” she said

Wako further observed that the Gen Z movement, which took many by surprise with the June 25 protests in 2024 was not a sudden uprising, but something youth workers had anticipated for years.

“People felt that it came suddenly, abruptly, and it confused the political elite. But people who work in the youth sector saw it coming,” she said. “We’ve been seeing it coming for, like, the last five years. And the same way I will predict, there’s going to be a ‘Fauci water’ kind of sweep.”

In addition, Wako warned that while political elites focus on building alliances at the top, they risk being blindsided by deep and growing discontent at the base.

“So even as they are arranging themselves up top, they are going to need Members of Parliament. Yes, they are going to need members of county assembly, and they are going to be surprised at the number of people who are not going to be re-elected,” she said.

Wako concluded by saying that youth across the country are no longer satisfied with politics as usual.

They are looking to take charge, not just through protests, but by contesting elections and reshaping Kenya’s political future from the ground up.